MARKET AND EVOLUTION TRENDS OF ENGINEERING SYSTEMS CORRESPONDENCE

Abstract: An analysis of market trends and evolution trends of engineering systems (ES) correspondence has been done in the following work. The evolution trends, that correspond the best with the market trends, had been identified. One of possible schemes of market trends' generation on the base of evolution trends of ES has been reviewed. The method of forecasting ES evolution with market trends consideration has been suggested.

Key words: Engineering systems evolution trends (TESE), engineering system (ES), market trend (marketing trend), prediction, method.

The evolution of engineering, as well as other systems, follows some certain trends. TRIZ researchers have analyzed and identified common patterns of engineering evolution, that afterwards were modified into the systems of engineering evolution trends (TESE) [1,2].

Nowadays for the prediction of engineering system evolution TESE is being employed [3] along with the marketing trends for the given segment of market, moreover TESE and marketing trends appear as two independent entities. Such approach is reflected in methodology of G3:ID employed by Scientific Research Center "Algorithm" (Saint-Petersburg).

Analysis of TESE and market trends correspondence for the various ES has been conducted. As the result it has been found out that the evolution trends, being the generalized presentation of lines of engineering systems evolution, in real conditions could take the form of market trends.

6 engineering spheres were analyzed in work

" Food

" Automobiles

" Housing

" Telecommunication

" Mobile phones

" Toys

For each ES the market trends were identified (total of 51 trends for 6 engineering spheres). The open internet sites were employed as the sources of information. Mainly all the trends relate to 2004-2006 years. (overall the time of trend formation has no importance in this work)

In order to match the market trend with the evolution trends the following method had been used (see examples in table 1):

1. In market trend description two or several parameters are emphasized, the difference of which reflects the trend direction.

2. Using the emphasized parameters, the generalized description of the market trend is given.

3. Formalized market trend corresponds with one of the evolution trends, which matches the best with its direction.

Table 1. Examples of market and evolution trends coordination

The results of the analysis are reflected on the diagram "Frequency of TESE occurrence in the market trends description" (pic 1)

Pic 1. Frequency of TESE occurrence in the market trends description

According to the obtained distribution, the ES evolution trends could be nominally divided into two groups (pic.2)

Pic 2. TESE groups in describing market trends

Analysis showed, that TESE that refer to the first group are describing inner interactions of the TESE elements as well as external interactions of TESE with the supersystem. In the first group of trends such concepts of TESE interactions with the supersystem as parameters' coordination, elimination of human involvement, systems' combination, increasing controllability, are realized. The second group describes only system's inner changes (trend of increasing elimination of system components, trend of increasing completeness, flow optimization, trend of increasing dynamicity). Thus we can conclude, that market trends well correspond only with the trends, describing the interaction of engineering system with the supersystem (table 2).

Table 2. TESE reflecting inner and outer interactions in ES

The above mentioned trend could be combined in the hierarchic system (pic.3). It is assumed that the realization of trends of the lower level contributes to the realization of upper level trends. On the picture the evolution trends well describing market trends are shown in dark, figures show their frequency occurrences in the market trends description.

Pic 3. Hierarchy of evolution trends with consideration of their occurrence in the market trends description

In common case, TESE is potentially possible engineering system evolution direction. The external environment (its necessities) determine by which TESE the engineering system is goint to develop at the moment (pic.4) The changes of the necessities in the external environment turn on one evolution trends and stop the other ones.

Pic. 4. The influence of external environment on the order of TESE turning on

Thus, TESE of first group being a generalized formulation of ES evolution lines, in real condition could take a form of market trends (table 3).

TESE + (Environmental characteristics) = Market trend

Table 3. Market trends forming

From the practical viewpoint the following suggestions are possible:

1. For the generation of new ideas the table of MT-TESE can be used (pic.5), in which each marketing trend (MT) is assigned one of the trends from the first group.

2. If the characteristics of the studied engineering group do not meet the market requirements (marketing trend), i.e. the corresponding evolution trend is realized badly, then the direction of further development would be determined by the main corresponding trend and trends which are hierarchically lower (mainly these are the trends from second group). On pic.3 the direction of generation are shown in solid arrows.

Pic 5. Generation scheme of ideas in table MT-TESE

Conclusions:

1. Only those evolution trends are reflected by market trends, which describe the interaction of ES with the Supersystem (Trend of Increasing Coordination, Trend of Increasing Controllability, Trend of Transition to the Supersystem, Trend of Elimination of Human Involvement).

2. The evolution trends, that has not been reflected by market trends describe only inner processes of ES evolution (Trend of Increasing Elimination of System, Trend of Increasing Completeness of System, Trend of Flow Optimization, Trend of Increasing Dynamicity) and are performing supporting role for the realization of trends from the first group.

3. Trend of Increasing Coordination and Trend of Transition to the Supersystem are most frequently met in market trends description (48% and 35%, accordingly, on the studied block).

4. The connection of Trends of Engineering System Evolution and market trends could be expressed in the form of the following regularity "TESE+(Environmental characteristics (market necessities))= Market trend"

5. For the engineering system the level of evolution trend realization, which is matched with the corresponding market trend, would determine the further development of the system. With insufficient realization level of the trend the further ES development would be determined by the trends , which are located hierarchically lower

Literature

1. G.S. Altshuller, B.L. Zlotin, V.I. Filatov Proffesion - search for new. - Kishinev: Kartia Moldoveniaske, 1985. - 196 p.

2. Altshuller G.S. To find an idea / Introduction into the Theory of Inventive Problems Solving - Novosibirsk: Nauka, - second edition, 1991. - 225 p.

3. S.Litvin, A.Lyubomirskiy. Trends of engineering systems evolution. Guide. - Gen3Partners, Inc., 2003. - 186 p.